The Impact of Regional Agreements and Global Pressures on Iran and Israel
In examining regional and global developments, the issues surrounding Iran, Israel, and Western policies toward Iran in recent years have encompassed multiple dimensions that have led to significant changes in global politics and international relations. This analysis addresses a set of matters involving existing threats against Iran and Israeli activities, recent shifts in international relations, and challenges associated with the use of nuclear weapons. These issues will influence not only Iran’s future but also the broader trajectory of global politics.
To begin, one of the central threats that Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, has raised regarding Iran is the existential threat that the Islamic Republic poses to Israel. This threat has been articulated particularly in the context of Iran’s nuclear program and its presence within the Resistance front. Accordingly, Israel and its Western allies—especially the United States—have devised a series of measures aimed at weakening Iran. These measures include economic sanctions, diplomatic pressure, and media propaganda against Iran, all intended to undermine Iran domestically and limit its regional influence. Additionally, the activation of the snapback mechanism and efforts to reinstate sanctions through the UN Security Council have created conditions for building an international consensus against Iran, increasing the likelihood that Israel may be further encouraged toward direct confrontation with Iran.
When discussing the ideological challenges and confrontations between the Islamic Republic and Israel, the subject of the Resistance axis and the Islamic Republic’s proxy groups is inseparable from the broader debate—one that is vast in scope and invites numerous analyses. In recent years—more precisely, up until the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah—the Islamic Republic’s proxy groups were in relatively favorable condition and played a notably effective role in altering Israel’s calculations. These groups captured a substantial portion of Israel’s military and, to some extent, intelligence focus and energy, compelling the Jewish state to devote extensive planning and operations to counter them and thereby delaying the option of direct military confrontation with Iran.
For Israel to engage Iran directly, it first needed to sever these arms of the Islamic Republic in order to inflict a serious blow to Iran’s strategic capacity. The assassination of Hassan Nasrallah and, prior to that, the pager incident and the killing of senior commanders, shattered Hezbollah’s cohesion; Israeli strikes on Yemen’s Houthis inflicted heavy damage on key Houthi infrastructure—ports, airports, weapons factories, and power plants—used for weapons transfers, military operations, and electricity generation, reducing their logistical and air capabilities; and finally, Israel has immobilized Hamas to a considerable extent and largely according to its own objectives.
Meanwhile, recent developments regarding Hamas and Israel have also taken on particular importance. The peace agreement between the two—following years of bloody conflict—is a remarkable shift in regional dynamics. This peace has strengthened Israel’s position and reduced international pressure on it, while simultaneously causing Iran to be increasingly viewed as a regional threat, especially in relation to operations such as “Al-Aqsa Storm.” Such a situation has effectively weakened Iran’s position on the global stage and created conditions enabling Netanyahu to prepare for confrontation with the Islamic Republic. In this context, Iran currently faces multiple threats, including economic pressure and the prospect of intensified sanctions, which will affect its ability to maintain Resistance structures.
Within this landscape, the Resistance axis—which previously functioned as a deterrent to Israeli policy—now faces diminishing financial and military capacity among its allied groups. This decline, combined with international pressure and sanctions, has enabled Israel to devote more direct attention to Iran. These regional shifts have made the possibility of greater conflict between Israel and Iran increasingly realistic. Should new negotiations begin between Iran and the United States, Israel may exploit this environment to strike key targets in Iran, as Tel Aviv perceives such an opportunity—particularly in pursuit of Iran’s final weakening and the consolidation of Israel’s position in the post-agreement period—as exceptionally significant.
There also exists the possibility that, if no agreement is reached between Iran and the United States, the conflicts will continue in broader and more complex forms. Under such circumstances, other regional or global actors may enter the confrontation directly or indirectly. Proxy wars and conflicts waged through the United States’ Arab allies in the region could serve as a strategy through which the United States and Israel simultaneously negotiate with Iran and confront it, containing the conflict in ways that benefit them. In this process, the situation of Iran’s allied states, such as Yemen, could play a critical role and lead to major changes in the timelines and objectives of military operations.
On another front, disputes among major global powers—such as China and Russia on one side and Western countries on the other—within the UN Security Council reveal further dimensions of current developments. Europe’s efforts to restore Security Council sanctions against Iran, and China and Russia’s firm opposition to such sanctions, reflect deep shifts in the global balance of power. These disagreements, especially regarding the interpretation and implementation of the snapback mechanism, may offer Iran diplomatic space to exploit divisions among major powers and strengthen its position in future negotiations.
Finally, global trends concerning nuclear weapons also influence this analysis. Experts, especially in the United States, believe that nuclear threats posed by Russia and China are more dangerous than ever before. These threats—particularly concerning the expansion of nuclear arsenals and the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons—have affected global security. Various states and international organizations continue to search for solutions to control armaments and reduce nuclear threats, yet these efforts appear to have largely failed.
Overall, recent regional and international policy developments—especially regarding Iran, Israel, and the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program—signal the emergence of a new phase in global politics in which sanctions, nuclear threats, and proxy conflicts are increasingly shaping the world’s balance of power. In this environment—where both West and East are reorienting their strategic approaches—the stage is being set for new crises and tensions that may dramatically reshape the future of international relations. Should another attack occur, regardless of how long this second war may last and the assassinations it may bring about, it will set in motion vast changes and transformations in the Islamic Republic and in West Asia, shaping the region for decades to come.
