A 44 percent surge in gasoline prices following the war with Iran and Donald Trump’s slumping approval ratings have put Republicans at risk of defeat ahead of the congressional elections.
According to Atlas Diplomacy, an analysis titled "A Dozen Key Numbers That Explain the Fate of the US Midterm Elections" by James M. Lindsay has been published by the Council on Foreign Relations. Examining key statistical indicators two weeks ahead of the 2026 US midterm elections, the analysis shows that the economic fallout from the war with Iran and public dissatisfaction with the Trump administration have tilted the race in favor of Democrats. Below is an abstract of the piece.
With two weeks remaining until the US midterm elections—which could shift party control of Congress and reshape American foreign policy—twelve numerical indicators capture the dynamics of the race. To win a majority in the next Congress convening on January 3, 2027, Democrats need a net gain of just 3 seats in the House of Representatives and 4 seats in the Senate. A 50-50 split in the Senate would leave Republicans in control via Vice President JD Vance’s tie-breaking vote, whereas a Democratic Senate majority would empower them to block Donald Trump’s executive and judicial nominations.
The most consequential economic factor in the race is the national average gasoline price of $4.28 per gallon. On February 28, 2026—the day Trump announced the launch of Operation Epic Fury against Iran—gasoline stood at $2.98 per gallon. That 44 percent jump will cost a typical American household up to $1,200 in 2026, while diesel prices have surged from $3.72 in February to $6.32 today. Voters directly link this affordability crisis to Trump’s decision to launch a war that two-thirds of Americans now view as a mistake.
According to national polling averages, 60.2 percent of Americans view Trump unfavorably compared to 37.1 percent favorably, leaving him with a net approval rating of -23.1 points. At the same time, Democrats hold a 9-percentage-point lead over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot—a margin similar to 2018, when Democrats picked up 41 House seats. Historically, the president’s party has lost an average of 31 House seats across the past five midterm cycles.
Counterbalancing these trends, mid-decade redistricting across seven Republican-led states versus two Democratic-led states has theoretically shifted a net 9 House seats toward Republicans. A total of 35 Senate seats are up for election following the resignations of Marco Rubio and JD Vance to join the administration, 47 states permit early or mail-in voting, and total political advertising spending across the 2025–26 cycle is projected to hit a record $11.6 billion—$400 million more than during the 2024 presidential cycle. Given that the final House race in 2024 took 29 days after Election Day to be called, slow vote counting in a polarized climate could once again stretch for weeks./ Source
