An unprecedented decline in Israel's popularity among the American public and near-unanimous Democratic Senate opposition to Tel Aviv have laid the groundwork for a shift in Washington's policies.
According to Atlas Diplomacy, a commentary piece titled "The Shift in the Democratic Party: Will the Midterms Change U.S. Policy Toward Israel?" by Hady Amr has been published by Chatham House. Citing recent congressional voting patterns among Democrats and eroding public support for Tel Aviv, the piece examines how a new policy toward Palestine and constraints on Israel could take shape if Democrats win control of Congress. A summary of the piece follows below.
Because the executive branch controls day-to-day foreign policy, November's midterm elections will not immediately transform the Donald Trump administration's approach toward Israel and Palestine; however, they will accelerate a fundamental shift already underway within the Democratic Party and the American electorate. The political center of gravity in Washington is shifting rapidly, and if Democrats win a majority in the House or Senate, their legislative and oversight actions will establish a new policy baseline for the next Democratic administration in 2029.
Recent congressional voting records illustrate the scale of this historic shift. On September 29, 46 of 47 Senate Democrats voted in favor of a resolution led by Chris Van Hollen, Tim Kaine, and Bernie Sanders requiring the State Department to report on the killing of American citizens by Israeli settlers or soldiers in the West Bank. Whereas only 18 Democratic senators supported restricting arms sales to Israel in November 2024, 40 Senate Democrats voted against selling bulldozers and 36 voted against selling 1,000-pound bombs to Israel this April, and now virtually the entire Senate Democratic caucus is demanding accountability from Tel Aviv.
In the House of Representatives, lawmakers introduced the "Stop the Settlements Act" on October 1, which—building on 2026 sanctions by European countries and Canada—sanctions individuals and entities involved in expanding West Bank and Gaza settlements and bans settlement-produced goods from entering the U.S. market. Simultaneously, the prominence of candidates critical of Israeli policies—such as Abdul El-Sayed, the Senate nominee in the key state of Michigan who calls Israel's actions in Gaza a genocide—and Barack Obama's planned appearance at his campaign event on October 24 demonstrate that the Democratic establishment is accommodating criticism of Israel.
This political evolution reflects a deep shift in American public opinion. Views of the Israeli government have grown more negative across all age groups and political parties in the United States; according to a Washington Post poll, even among American Jews, 61 percent believe Israel has committed war crimes and 39 percent describe its actions as "genocide."
If Democrats take control of Congress in 2027 and 2028, specialized committees will be able to hold hearings on settler violence, strictly scrutinize weapons sales, condition appropriations, and review the web of laws restricting U.S. relations with the Palestine Liberation Organization and the Palestinian Authority to increase pressure on the executive branch. While these steps will not bring immediate relief to the families of the more than 70,000 Palestinians killed in Gaza and the millions living under occupation, they will build the legal and political infrastructure needed to change the White House's strategy in the next presidential term./ Source
