By Ali Nazifpour
On November 3, 2026, the American midterm elections will be held. These elections include the congressional elections—the US legislature, which is composed of two chambers known as the House of Representatives and the Senate. To determine the composition of the 120th Congress of the United States, which will formally begin work in January 2027, all 435 House seats and 35 of the Senate’s 100 seats will be contested. To win the House, the parties need 218 seats. In the Senate, Republicans need 50 seats and Democrats need 51, because under the US Constitution, the vice president—now Republican JD Vance—also presides over the Senate and can, in the event of a tie, decide the outcome with his vote. To win both chambers, Democrats must gain four seats in total. At the same time, gubernatorial elections will be held in 36 states, which are not the subject of this piece.
These elections are being held while the incumbent president, Donald Trump, has very low popularity. Indeed, Trump’s approval rating in credible polls stands between 34 and 38 percent—a figure that means that, after Harry S. Truman in 1946, he has the lowest approval rating on the eve of a midterm election among American presidents in modern history. Trump’s severe unpopularity stems from the widespread belief that he has violated many of his campaign promises. The high cost of living in the United States also plays a role. The unpopular war in Iran and its effects on fuel prices, tariffs that have fanned inflation, his refusal to release documents related to the Jeffrey Epstein case, and the extreme measures of US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) are among the other reasons for Trump’s unpopularity.
From a historical perspective, a president’s approval rating is the most decisive indicator for predicting his party’s performance in congressional elections. The party in the White House usually loses seats. This is especially true of presidents in their second term—a phenomenon known in political science literature as the “sixth-year curse.” For this reason, most analysts expect the Democratic Party to achieve a decisive and impressive victory, an event described by the term “blue wave.”
Given this reality, a Democratic victory in the House elections seems highly likely. But with the Senate, the situation is more complicated. Since only one-third of Senate seats are up for a vote, the Senate election does not precisely reflect the country’s overall political mood. The Senate map is heavily tilted in favor of the Republican Party. To win the Senate, Democrats need to gain four seats. Although their victory in North Carolina is considered almost certain—so much so that Republicans are no longer spending money in the state and have effectively conceded the race—Democrats must also win three more seats. The problem is that nearly all the remaining states where Democrats have a good chance are conservative states that Trump won by a considerable margin: states such as Texas, Iowa, Alaska, Ohio, and Kansas. In Maine, which is considered a liberal state, incumbent Senator Susan Collins has a real chance of holding on to her seat. In addition, Democrats may lose seats in Michigan, Minnesota, or New Hampshire, though the probability of this scenario in the last two is very slim. In short, while victory in the House is easy, victory in the Senate will be very difficult.
That is why the scale of a decisive Democratic victory matters greatly. If we calculate the Democratic Party’s national popular-vote total and they are ahead of the Republicans by 9 percentage points or more, they will most likely win both the Senate and the House. But if their margin is 7 or 8 points—or less—Republicans may still retain control of the Senate. It is worth noting that current polls show Democrats winning by a margin of 10 to 11 points. If these polls are accurate—or even if they have underestimated the scale of the Democratic victory—then from January, the Senate will come under Democratic control. But if there is a small error in the Republicans’ favor, an error entirely within the normal polling margin of error, then the Senate will remain in Republican hands. One could say that in the event of a “blue wave,” the Republicans will win the Senate, whereas in the event of a “blue tsunami,” the Democrats will win. There are many reasons to trust the polls. Unlike some presidential elections, polls in midterm elections have largely been accurate. Moreover, Trump’s approval is now much lower than in 2018—the previous midterm election during his presidency. In that election, Republicans lost by a margin of about 8 points. Therefore, it is not far-fetched to assume that the Republican defeat this year will.
