How Submarines Pave the Way for an Attack on Iran
According to Atlas Diplomacy, an op‑ed titled “Let Us Be Careful Not to Be Caught Off Guard Again,” written by Mohammad Mounesan and published in Iranian Diplomacy, examines the role of U.S. submarines in initiating naval and aerial attacks and the challenges facing Iran’s air‑defense posture in confronting this threat. The author underscores the importance of enhancing anti‑submarine warfare capabilities and employing unmanned vessels as a key strategy to reduce vulnerability. What follows is the text of the op‑ed.
In recent days, reports have circulated about the concentration of the U.S. naval fleet in southern waters and the possibility of an attack on Iran. The prevailing assumption is that aircraft carriers would carry out the initial strikes. Yet in U.S. naval doctrine, the opening phase of attacks is conducted with submarine‑launched missiles aimed at suppressing the enemy’s air‑defense systems.
Because of their stealth, submarines can approach to within 300 to 500 kilometers of the coastline and destroy the most critical elements of the enemy’s air defenses. In the absence of effective anti‑submarine technology, they can move even closer. A nuclear‑powered ballistic‑missile submarine is capable of carrying roughly 350 tons of armaments, while an attack submarine carries about 150 tons. In the early Tir attack on Iran’s nuclear sites [July, Gregorian equivalent], an Ohio‑class submarine launched 30 Tomahawk missiles from the northern Arabian Sea.
After air defenses are suppressed, aircraft carriers are compelled to move closer in order to support fighter operations, as aircraft have limited range. For example, the F‑35, when carrying weapons, has an operational radius of about 600 kilometers, while that of the F‑16 is approximately 350 kilometers. From Iran’s perspective, the principal concern in a maritime attack is the presence of submarines, because once their position is detected, they are forced to withdraw, and their destruction becomes feasible through depth charges and torpedoes.
Iran has devoted relatively little attention to anti‑submarine warfare in open waters, and most of its submarines are small and confined to coastal environments. Low‑cost and effective solutions include the use of unmanned surface and subsurface vessels which, when equipped with underwater acoustic‑listening systems, can render the Sea of Oman and the northern Arabian Sea unsafe for enemy submarines. Additionally, traditional lenj boats (wooden vessels) and large fishing or service ships can be equipped with hydrophones to detect submarine positions and initiate destruction operations. Armed anti‑submarine drones, equipped with torpedoes and mines, are now common globally but have not yet been developed in Iran.
To launch missiles, submarines must ascend to depths of 30 to 50 meters below the surface, which makes them vulnerable. Satellite tracking is another method of detection, though Iran has so far failed to achieve success in this domain. The importance of pushing submarines farther away lies in the fact that it significantly reduces the effectiveness of the enemy’s surface fleet.
Should the United States rely on air bases in neighboring countries, an Iranian response would raise the risk of an energy crisis, making those states unlikely to accept such a cost. As a result, aircraft carriers represent a more suitable option. Using air bases in non‑neighboring countries such as Jordan would require aerial refueling aircraft, which constitute the Achilles’ heel of such operations—one for which Iran has prepared in recent months.
It is possible that the mission of aircraft carriers is merely to divert Iran’s attention away from submarines. Effective countermeasures against submarine‑launched missile attacks require the deployment of mobile land‑ and sea‑based defensive and offensive systems. The focus must be placed on the endurance of naval platforms and the deployment of missile systems in open oceans. Combining manned vessels with unmanned systems can enhance security in distant waters.
Sinking an aircraft carrier requires disabling its engine room, fuel tanks, or weapons storage areas with torpedoes. The sustainable solution lies in expanding anti‑submarine capabilities, maintaining a presence in open waters, employing large numbers of unmanned systems, and equipping a wide range of vessels with missile and tracking systems.
