A fresh stir in nuclear diplomacy unfolds under a cloud of ambiguity and maximalist demands.
According to Atlas of Diplomacy, an op-ed titled “The Twilight of Negotiations,” written by Malek Mosaddegh and published in Iranian Diplomacy, examines signs of a revival in Iran–U.S. nuclear talks at a moment when, alongside increased diplomatic activity and the growing role of regional and international actors, the scope of Washington’s demands and uncertainty over the negotiations’ true trajectory have cast serious doubt on any optimism about their outcome. What follows is a précis of the piece.
In recent days, a series of reports and official statements have suggested that Iran–U.S. relations are once again entering a new phase of diplomatic activity—an atmosphere that has strengthened the likelihood of launching nuclear negotiations more than before and, in parallel with regional and international developments, has highlighted the roles of various actors, from neighboring countries to Russia and Israel. A report by the Fars News Agency, citing an informed government source, states that Masoud Pezeshkian, President of Iran, has issued instructions to begin negotiations. According to the report, these talks will be confined strictly to the nuclear issue and will not encompass other matters. This development has been presented as the first unofficial confirmation, at the highest level, of the government’s decision to enter a new phase of dialogue.
At the same time, the Tasnim News Agency has reported the possibility that Iran–U.S. negotiations could begin in the coming days with the participation of senior officials from both countries. According to this report, although the time and place of the meeting have not yet been finalized, the talks would take place at the level of Seyyed Abbas Araghchi on behalf of Iran and Steve Witkoff, the U.S. president’s special envoy. In this context, Esmaeil Baqaei, spokesperson for Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, responding to claims that the United States had issued a deadline, stressed that the Islamic Republic of Iran has never accepted ultimatums and that such claims are unfounded. He described Iran’s approach as one based on sincerity and seriousness, emphasizing that negotiations would not be used as an instrument of pressure.
Baqaei also stated, regarding reports about the possible holding of talks in Turkey, that Iran is reviewing both the general framework and the detailed aspects related to advancing this diplomatic process. He pointed to an intensification of regional countries’ “good offices” [diplomatic mediation efforts] and referred to ongoing contacts by neighbors and regional actors. According to him, the element of time holds particular importance for Iran, and every day of acceleration in lifting or reducing illegal sanctions is regarded as an achievement.
At the regional level, reports citing Israeli sources indicate that Steve Witkoff is expected to travel to Tel Aviv in the near future. According to reports by Israel Army Radio and Channel 13 television, he will meet with Benjamin Netanyahu and senior Israeli military officials, with Iran as the central topic of discussion—a report also confirmed by the Al-Qahera Al-Ikhbariya network. On another front, ISNA reported, quoting Dmitry Peskov, spokesperson for the Kremlin, that Russia is prepared to offer services for the transfer of countries’ surplus uranium as a potential solution to negotiating disputes, adding that Moscow is in contact with all relevant parties.
At the same time, there are indications that the road ahead is fraught with serious ambiguities. Unofficial messages attributed to the American side suggest that Washington’s demands are not limited to uranium enriched to 60 percent purity, but rather extend to Iran’s entire stockpile of enriched uranium. Such an approach is understood as putting forward demands beyond previous frameworks and could expose the negotiation process to new risks. Past experience has shown that raising the ceiling of U.S. demands has pushed talks toward attrition or outright deadlock.
In this context, the possibility that the parties may resort to “news therapy” [media signaling to manage public opinion] and public-opinion management has also been raised—an approach that, by sending positive signals, can help ease immediate pressures and buy time. However, in the absence of genuine will to reach an agreement, this path could merely defer the crisis to a more costly future. Overall, Iran’s nuclear diplomacy in its current state is moving simultaneously between hope for engagement and warnings about the dangers that lie ahead.
