Turkey’s moves in Syria are placing pressure on the Iran–Iraq security balance.
According to Atlas of Diplomacy, an analytical note titled “Turkey–Jolani Alignment Against Iran’s Civilizational Arc,” authored by Mohammadreza Abdollahpour and published by Iranian Diplomacy, examines developments in Syria and argues that Turkey’s strategic convergence with Salafi–Takfiri actors—amid a vacuum of effective engagement by regional and extra-regional powers—not only weakens the political and identity structures of Syrian Kurds but, in the medium term, generates emerging threats to the national security of Iran and Iraq and to the geopolitical depth of western Iran. What follows is a summary of the note.
In the wake of U.S. indifference to recent developments in Syria, Russia’s lack of effective action, Iraq’s military weakness, and the Islamic Republic of Iran’s unstable policies during and after the Assad era, Turkey—pursuing an aggressive posture and relying on Salafi operatives and Takfiri terrorist forces—has advanced a process of territorial expansion in northern Syria while simultaneously pushing a systematic project of identity erasure of the Kurds. The consequences of this trajectory directly affect regional stability and Iran’s national interests. This aggressive behavior can be analyzed within a strategic framework that has taken shape in Turkey’s regional policy for years, one grounded in confrontation with Iran’s civilizational arc, across both cultural and religious dimensions.
Within this framework, from the outset of the Syrian crisis, Turkey calibrated its policy to weaken Iran-aligned structures and alter the region’s geopolitical balance. Recent movements by Jolani-affiliated forces east of the Euphrates and attacks on parts of Kobani and Hasakah Province have placed the autonomous region of Syrian Kurds—which has had minimal conflict with the Assad government—on the brink of collapse. This situation has created a new geographic and operational linkage between the Jolani regime and Iraq, expanding Turkey’s breathing space in eastern Syria. As a result, a new strategic depth has taken shape for Turkey, exerting additional pressure not only on Iraq’s Kurdish regions but also on the country’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) and its army.
As this process continues, the release of ISIS prisoners from detention facilities under Syrian Kurdish control—carried out by Turkey and Jolani’s forces—and their subsequent incorporation into Jolani’s military structure, as part of a mechanism directed by Turkish intelligence officers, has created a new platform for the reproduction of insecurity. These organized forces, driven by retaliatory motives, are being deployed against current and future enemies, particularly Kurds and Shiites. Such a development generates threats extending beyond Syria’s geography, placing the PMF and the Iraqi army, as well as Iran’s border regions, at heightened security risk.
At the same time, after advancing a scenario of Iran’s geopolitical encirclement along its northwestern borders and in the Caucasus, Turkey has now shifted its focus to western Iran’s territorial sphere and the geopolitical depth of West Asia. This strategy is first pursued in Syria and then extended to Iraq, particularly the Mosul and Kirkuk areas. These moves constitute part of a continuous pattern aimed at constraining Iran’s regional influence and reshaping the balance of power in its surrounding environment.
Under these conditions, weakness in accurately distinguishing friend from foe, the impoverishment of regional diplomacy, and an inability to grasp the preferences and priorities of rival actors have paved the way for the formation of a strategic alignment among Turkey, Jolani, and certain Arab oil states. Following the erosion of Syrian Kurdish identity and political geography, this convergence targets the Popular Mobilization Forces and Iraq’s security structure—forces that in recent years have played a significant role in securing Iran’s western borders. Ultimately, inattention to the level of engagement and confrontation with regional and extra-regional structures, to the quality of employing local forces, and to the distinction between tactical and strategic enemies has led to the emergence of new threats against Iran’s national and regional security.
